Solar Cycle 25 Status

Smoothed monthly mean sunspot number R for solar cycle 25, the present ongoing cycle, has now surpassed the maximum amplitude observed for solar cycle 24 (116.4 at t = 64 months into the cycle, April 2014) and it continues increasing in value, measuring 117.9 at t = 38 months (February 2023). To date, the largest monthly increase in R has measured only 6.7 (at t = 36 months), a value lower than the observed value for solar cycle 24 (8.2 at t = 28 months), suggesting that a larger value likely should be expected later this year. Maximum amplitude for solar cycle 25 is not expected until on or after January 2024 (i.e., t = 49 months or later) and, based on the +/- 1 sigma overlap predictions using the minimum values of the 0AA and Ap geomagnetic indices in the vicinity of solar cycle 25 minimum amplitude (December 2019), it is expected to measure about 145.7 +/- 17.1.

Solar cycle 25 2
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